Now, we have enough information, by comparing the way three other clubs handled star pitchers returning from a major injury, to put to rest another false narrative - that Mike Rizzo's decision to shut down Stephen Strasburg in September 2012 was a poor decision.
It was anything but - it was sage, forward-looking and compassionate. In other words, it was right.
To demonstrate my point, let's look at how the Nats handled Strasburg's return from Tommy John surgery in 2012 to how other teams handled similarly talented or high potential pitchers who experienced similar injuries. These players are:
Kris Medlen - Atlanta Braves
Matt Harvey - New York Mets
Dylan Bundy - Baltimore Orioles
Let's look at Medlen first. Medlen was a wunderkind for the Braves in 2012. Injured in 2010, he only pitched 2 1/3 innings in 2011. But when he returned in 2012, he was untouchable. He finished 10-1 with a 1.57 ERA. For SABRmetric-type folks, his ERA+ was 256, one of MLB's best and his WHIP was 0.913. FIP was 2.42, so his brilliance was legit. Overall, he pitched much better than Strasburg did in 2012.
Understandably, the Braves, a strong wild card winner with 94 victories in 2012, wanted Medlen to anchor their rotation in the playoffs and he started the wild card game against St. Louis. He pitched effectively, although giving up 5 runs, only 2 were earned, but took the loss, ending his and Atlanta's season.
How did the Braves keep him available for the postseason while the Nats failed to do so with Strasburg? Well, they turned Medlen into a hybrid pitcher. In 2012, he appeared in a whopping 50 games, but only started 12. This limited his innings to 138 in the majors. Add to that 13 1/3 in the minors and 6 1/3 in the wildcard game and he pitched 157 2/3 innings in 2012.
The Braves appeared right in 2013 when Strasburg's club failed to make the playoffs, but Atlanta won the division. In fact, noted, but often caustic sportswriter and author John Feinstein claimed the shutdown decision so demoralized Washington that it was the top reason for their disappointing season.
Medlen had another strong season in 2013, winning 15 games (lost 12) with a fine ERA of 3.11 (FIP 3.48, ERA+ 121 - both good) in 197 innings, a reasonable increase from his 2012 workload. He pitched in 32 games, all but one as a starter.
But, digging deeper into his stats, some warning signs appeared. His WHIP increased to 1.223 and his BB/9 increased from 1.5 to 2.1 and his K/9 decreased from 7.8 to 7.2. In Game 1 of the NLDS, the LA Dodgers rocked him for 5 runs in 4 innings en route to a 6-1 win.
He was never the same again.
Injured in 2013 before pitching even one game, he returned to the majors in 2015 as a swing man for the World Champion Kansas City Royals. He won 6 games in 58 1/3 innings across 15 games (8 starts). He even contributed, mildly, to the Royals championship run, eating 5 innings in Game 3 of the ALCS, an 11-8 Toronto win as well as a perfect inning, with 2 strikeouts, of mop up relief in the Mets 9-3 win in Game 3 of the World Series.
But his numbers foretold problems ahead. His electric stuff was no more and his ERA, 4.01 (FIP 4.13, ERA+ 105) were ok, but trending down. His WHIP of 1.269 was higher as was his BB/9 (2.8). His K/9 was lower as well (6.2).
He was hurt again in 2016 and pitched only 51 innings, combined in the majors and minors, both with an ERA over 7.00. He returned to the Braves organization in 2017 and pitched 116 1/3 innings in the minors, but was ineffective. In 2018, Arizona took a flyer on him recapturing some of his old magic, but it was gone. He pitched poorly in 34 innings at AAA and even worse in 4 innings for the D-Backs.
Convinced now that his arm was shot, Medlen, sadly, retired. He finished his career with an excellent 41-26 record, a 3.33 ERA in 599 1/3 innings, with 8.4 WAR (Baseball Reference) and a World Series ring. But he could have been so much more. Pitching 50 games then 200 innings in back-to-back years likely contributed to his downfall. Can we prove it? No. But it is beyond doubt that Stephen Strasburg's career has followed a longer, better trajectory.
The second case is Matt "Batman" Harvey.
Harvey, the Mets' first round pick in 2010 (#7 overall), after 10 tantalizing starts in 59 1/3 innings pitched in 2012, burst onto the scene in 2013. In 26 starts, he went 9-5, with a 2.27 ERA (2.01 FIP, 157 ERA+), 0.931 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 with a low 1.6 BB/9. Overall, he pitched 178 1/3 innings, a bright spot for the 74-88 Mets.
New York fans taunted DC fans that Harvey was better than Strasburg and the numbers backed them up - at least then.
Reality struck in 2014 when Harvey missed the entire season due to injury. He returned in 2015 and many wondered how the Mets' GM Sandy Alderson would manage Harvey's workload. Then, fairly unexpectedly, the Nationals' through injury and internal strife faltered as the Mets took first place in the NL East.
Alderson and the Mets pondered shutting down Harvey. Scott Boras, Harvey's agent, even lobbied Alderson to do so. As it became apparent the Mets would win the NL East, however, Alderson made up his mind - Harvey was going to pitch and pitch a lot.
Harvey ended the season starting 29 games, with a 13-8 record, 2.71 ERA (3.05 FIP, 140 ERA+) in 189 1/3 innings. His WHIP was great 1.019 as was his 8.9 K/9 and his 1.8 BB/9.
Risk be damned, Harvey was going to play a central role in the Mets' postseason starting rotation. He won Game 3 of the NLDS, with 5 solid innings, 3 runs (2 earned) 7 K's. He was even better in Game 1 of the NLCS, pitching 7 2/3 innings, allowing only 2 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks, with 9 K's. His stellar outing got the Mets off to a winning start against the Chicago Cubs. The Mets went on the sweep the Cubs, thanks in large part to Daniel Murphy's clutch hitting, and represent the NL in the World Series against the Kansas City Royals.
Three years after the Strasburg decision, Harvey and Alderson were making Rizzo and the Nationals organization look like fools - or so it seemed at the time.
Harvey started Game 1 of the World Series and went 6 innings, giving up 3 runs in a game the Mets would eventually lose 5-4 in 14 innings. He pitched again in Game 5. With the Mets down 3 games to 1, he was their last hope.
Harvey was marvelous. Showing no ill effects from what was now becoming one of the highest innings pitched totals of any pitcher in 2015, he mowed down the Royals inning after inning, entering the 9th with a 2-0 lead. He had given up just 4 hits and a walk and struck out 9.
In the 9th, he walked Lorenzo Cain, who stole second and scored on Eric Hosmer's double. Harvey was removed with a 2-1 lead, replaced by closer Jeurys Familia. Familia didn't give up a hit, but Hosmer scored the tying run on a daring dash from 3rd base (he had moved there on a ground out) as New York first baseman Lucas Duda's throw was late and wide. Yet, Harvey's performance remained heroic. The Royals later won the game and the series, 7-2, with a 5-run 12th.
All told, Harvey pitched in 34 games and 216 innings in 2015, this after pitching zero, that's 0, innings in 2014.
He was never the same.
In 2016, he went 4-10 in 92 2/3 innings. His ERA ballooned to 4.86 (FIP 3.47, ERA+83) and his BB/9 rose to 2.4 while his K/9 fell to 7.4. His WHIP was 1.468 He pitched 92 2/3 innings again in 2017, had a 5-7 record, but his statistics degraded even more. His ERA went to an abysmal 6.90 (FIP 6.37, ERA+ 62), WHIP 1.694, BB/9 4.6, K/9 6.5.
In 2018, New York traded him to the Cincinnati Reds and his performance got a bit better. For the season, he was 7-9, with 155 IP, 4.94 ERA (4.57 FIP, 83 ERA+, 1.303 WHIP, BB/9, 2.3, K/9, 7.6. Last year, Harvey pitched a total of 86 2/3 innings, 59 2/3 for the Angels. His numbers were quite poor, 3-5 record, 7.09 ERA, 6.35 FIP, 64 ERA+, 1.542 WHIP, BB/9, 4.4, K/9, 5.9.
With this performance and COVID-19 shuttering baseball until who knows when combined with him now being 31-years old, who knows if, when or where Harvey will pitch again.
After 2015, Harvey fell from the perch of one of baseball finest pitchers down to near bottom. Courageously, he fought back from career threatening injuries, but his body and arm have never recovered from the overuse in 2015 when the Mets decided the World Series trophy was more important than the future of one of their star pitchers.
Our third case is Dylan Bundy.
Bundy, the Baltimore Orioles' first round draft pick in 2011 (#4 overall) was touted as a flamethrower, a future top of the rotation starter and, in an opinion loudly voiced from many Baltimore fans and sportscasters, likely to be better than DC's fragile kid.
His 2012 performance in the Birds' farm system stoked those hopes. Bundy was brilliant. At age 19, he pitched 103 2/3 innings, with a 9-3 record, minuscule 2.08 ERA, 119 K's, 0.916 WHIP, (baseball reference does not have FIP and ERA+ stats for the minors) and a 10.3 K/9. He even got a brief 1 2/3 innings cup of coffee in the Big Leagues in September, pitching scoreless ball. He was ticketed for the staff ace job in Baltimore.
Then, a brutal arm injury and an equally long and brutal recovery intervened. Bundy did not pitch at all in 2013 and barely in 2014 (41 1/3 IP in the minors) and 2015 (22 IP, minors). By then, his electric swing and miss stuff was largely gone, but to his credit, he worked hard and became a solid pitcher.
In 2016, he got called up to the Orioles in a relief role until July. He made his first of 14 starts on July 17, pitching 3 1/3 innings against Tampa Bay. In their last pennant race of the decade, Baltimore managed Bundy similar to how Atlanta used Medlen in 2012, but, crucially, not swinging between relieving and starting. He made 22 relief appearances in April - July, then 14 starts the remainder of the season, keeping him on a regular schedule of a start every 5 days until September, when off days and increased rosters let him go 6 days between appearances.
He pitched effectively for the Orioles and helped them earn the second AL wild card. For the season, he pitched 109 2/3 innings, 10-6 record, 4.02 ERA, 4.70 FIP, 107 ERA+, 1.377 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9, 8.5 K/9. These are fine stats for a pitcher used mostly in the AL East bandboxes. He did not appear in the Orioles' loss to Toronto in the wild card game and has never pitched in the postseason.
Baltimore's more tender handling of Bundy, though they did not outright shut him down, probably has helped him to avoid any other major injuries. In 2017, he turned in a fine season, 13-9, 169 2/3 IP, 4.24 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 102 ERA+, 1.196 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9, 8.1 K/9.
In 2018, his performance deteriorated, but his was still able to pitch 171 2/3 innings. His other numbers look ugly, 8-16 record, 5.45 ERA, 5.17 FIP, 78 ERA+, 1.410 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9, but a strong 9.6 K/9. Bundy's issue is allowing homeruns. Even in Camden Yards, giving up 41, as he did in 2018, is just too many.
Last season, Bundy went 7-14 in 161 2/3 IP, 4.79 ERA, 4.73 FIP, 99 ERA+, 1.355 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9, 9.0 K/9. He did, though, reduce his homeruns allowed to 29. Only 27, Bundy still has the potential to be an average to slightly above average starting pitcher who can eat innings and have an occasional good season. His supporting cast will be better in Los Angeles, at least it would have been this year, than it was in Baltimore in 2017-2019 as the Orioles entered a rebuilding phase.
The Baltimore organization, however, deserves some degree of credit for not overusing him in 2016 when the temptation to do so, a playoff spot at stake, was extremely high. Unlike the Mets and Matt Harvey and the Braves and Kris Medlen, they, if nothing else, have helped to extend his career and earnings.
Finally, we turn to Stephen Strasburg.
Strasburg's last appearance in 2012 was on September 7, when the Miami Marlins rocked him for 5 runs in 3 innings. Rizzo and Nationals manager Davey Johnson had seen enough. Controversially and to much dissatisfaction (at the time) from Strasburg and ridicule from the national and local media, they ended their young phenom's season at 28 starts and 159 1/3 innings pitched.
It had to be a tough decision. Shutting him down meant the Nationals went into the postseason with a "big 2" of Gio Gonzalez (a 21-game winner) and Jordan Zimmerman, rather than a "big 3." Rizzo, accused of hubris for saying he expected the Nationals to return to the playoffs often, stood his ground. He said that he was not willing to sacrifice a player's career in exchange for a trophy.
Then, he watched in 2013 as the Braves, led by Medlen, won the division and in 2015 as the Mets, anchored by Harvey and other young arms, reached the World Series. The Nationals did return to the playoffs in 2014, 2016 and 2017, but came up short each time. Every time they lost, people brought up the shutdown decision as a poor one.
But was it? Obviously, now that they are 2019 World Champions, the doubters have been silenced. But what do Strasburg's numbers look like compared to his three counterparts?
In 2013, Strasburg made 30 starts and pitched 183 innings, both career highs. He was 8-9, 3.00 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 126 ERA+, 1.049 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9, 9.4 K/9.
In 2014, he did even better, as the Nationals won the NL East title. 14-11 record, 215 IP (one of MLB's top totals), 3.14 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 119 ERA+, 1.121 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9, 10.1 K/9. He led the NL with 242 strikeouts. Unlike his counterparts, Strasburg's numbers strengthened, his performance improved, his workload increased.
In the playoffs, he pitched decently in his one appearance, Game 1 of the NLDS, giving up 2 runs, 1 earned in 5 innings in a 3-2 loss to the Giants. Overall, then, he pitched 220 innings in 2014.
Perhaps that workload was too much. In 2015 and 2016 he battled injuries and pitched fewer than 150 regular season innings in both seasons. In 2015 he was 11-7, 123 1/3 IP, 3.46 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 114 ERA+, 1.107 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9, 11.0 K/9.
In 2016, he went a stellar 15-4 in 147 2/3 IP, 3.60 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 119 ERA+, 1.104 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9, 11.2 K/9. These are the statistics of a perennial top line pitcher. Even if you criticize his ability to stay on the mound, he is still going over 100 IP per season and avoiding any major injury. That speaks both to his conditioning and the Nationals' handling of him and his workload. Conversely, he did miss the 2016 postseason due to injury, a blow that ultimately crippled the Nats' hopes.
In 2017, Strasburg went 15-4 again, but increased his IP to 175 1/3. His other numbers are again stellar - 2.52 ERA, 2.72 FIP (NL best), 1.015 ERA+, 1.015 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9, 10.5 K/9 and a league leading 0.7 HRA/9. He also finished third in NL Cy Young Award voting.
He saved his best for the NLDS. In two starts, 14 IP, he went 1-1, with a 0.00 ERA, 0.643 WHIP and an average - average - of 14.1 K/9. His season-saving performance in Game 4 is one of the best pitching performance in postseason history. Still, as the Nationals lost yet another Game 5 at home, the criticism of the 2012 shutdown persisted. Many felt the Nationals window had now "closed" and they had kicked away one of their four chances that season.
In 2018, Strasburg fought injuries again and only pitched 130 innings, one of many reasons for the Nats' poor season. Of equal concern, he had the worst statistical performance of his career in 2018, going 10-7, 3.74 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 114 ERA+, 1.200 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9, 10.8 K/9. These are still fine numbers for any pitcher, but the expectations for Strasburg have always been higher, even unreasonably so, since he was the #1 draft pick in 2009.
Then, 2019 happened. Even discounting the postseason, Strasburg was outstanding. He went 18-6 and would have won 20 or more if the Nationals bullpen had been less than abysmal. He pitched an NL high 209 innings, 3.32 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 138 ERA+, 1.038 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9, 10.8 K/9. He finished 5th in Cy Young voting.
Then, he raised the bar higher in the postseason. He was the winning pitcher in the Wild Card game with 3 innings of shutout relief. He won Game 2 of the NLDS and kept the Nationals close enough in Game 5 to complete their historic comeback. He won Game 3 of the NLCS, with 12 K's in 7 innings and allowing just a single unearned run. He won both games he pitched in the World Series, including a crucial Game 6 where he pitched 8 1/3 innings. He held the high-powered Houston offense, the best statistically since the 1927 Yankees, to 4 runs in 14 innings.
Unlike his three peers, all who were claimed to be "better" at some juncture of their careers, he is a World Series MVP and has secured two huge contracts, making more than the other three combined. Since his 2012 shutdown, he has pitched 1242 2/3 innings, including 55 1/3 in the postseason. His average innings pitched across 7 seasons since the shutdown is 177 2/3, one of the highest 7-year totals of any pitcher. He has won 97 games, including six in the postseason.
All told, his 3 counterparts, since 2012, have pitched 1528 2/3 IP with 92 wins, including postseason. These totals are across 12 seasons (I've combined Medlen's 2016 and 2018 totals since they are so small) for an average of 127 1/3. Strasburg has averaged 50 more innings pitched and as the numbers above show, his performance has been far, far superior to the other three.
If that is not enough evidence, according to the distinguished Washington Post columnist Thomas Boswell, considered one of the finest writers on baseball (and golf), Rizzo has, in his office, an autographed picture of Strasburg that reads: "Riz, thanks for saving my career, Stephen Strasburg."
The numbers tell the truth. The verdict is in, the Nationals made the right decision.
Note: Statistics are from baseball-reference.com and Retrosheet.org.
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